Guardian reporter claims people are moving to Midwest because of climate change

Never let inconvenient data spoil your narrative

The Guardian proudly boasts of having raised $14 million from “private foundations” in support of climate and environment reporting. Many of these “private foundations” are anti-fossil fuel groups, the Rockefeller Family Fund, the Park Foundation, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Much of the publication’s climate and energy coverage is, therefore, paid political advertisements.

In a recent article, Guardian freelancer Stephen Starr displayed how sloppy reporters can be when they’re paid to advance a narrative. Starr claims that people are moving from Florida to the Midwest because of climate change.

Miami has been dubbed “ground zero” for climate risk and sea levels along Florida’s coast have already risen by as much as 8in (20cm) since 1950.

Shortly after receiving a notice in the mail in 2022 that her homeowner’s insurance would rise to almost $3,000 monthly, she [Laura Rivas, a cybersecurity engineer] saw her stepfather interviewed on local TV. His own property in Fort Myers had been destroyed by a tornado.

Rivas made her mind up right then – it was time to go.

Starr repeats the insurance companies’ PR talking point that climate change is driving up insurance rates, which is highly suspect with weak substantiation. The annual count of strong tornadoes and normalized costs of damages from tornadoes is down.

The reporter then goes on to claim that Puerto Rican “climate migrants” are fleeing the Carribean island for Buffalo, New York, and Californians are fleeing California’s wildfires for the safety of … Duluth, Minnesota.

“It’s probably no coincidence that the majority of our movers to the midwest originate from Texas, California and Florida – states that are disproportionately impacted by climate change,” said Evan Hock of MakeMyMove, an Indianapolis-based company.

If Starr had been more committed to accuracy, he might have done a quick Google search to look up the states that are gaining population to see which states are gaining population. According to Market Watch, Florida, Texas and North Carolina were the states with the most net in-migration. The states losing the most population are California, New York and New Mexico. Other data sources show similar patterns. U.S. Postal Service change-of-address data shows the most out-migration is from California, New York and Illinois, and the states gaining the most residents are Texas, Florida, and South Carolina.

To support his narrative that people are fleeing California because of wildfires, he links to a New York Times article about how Duluth is supposedly “climate proof.” The Times article bases its narrative entirely on anecdotes. A 2021 United Van Lines survey found that retirement, health and jobs, being closer to family, lifestyle and cost of living were the top reasons people moved. Climate change didn’t even rank.

I’ll throw in my own anecdote. I’m a native New Mexican, and I moved away from the state in 2014. Climate had nothing to do with it. After spending 14 months in 2012 and 2013 limping by on freelance and part-time work, I took a job as a community reporter in the heart of North Dakota’s Bakken oil patch. I make annual trips to Albuquerque, and the city’s decline is stark. Homeless tents sprung up all over Albuquerque's parks. My favorite restaurant across from UNM, where I spent many late nights studying and eating green chile cheeseburgers, is no longer open 24 hours because of violence.

People do not move from one state to another because of climate change. While there may be individuals reporters can quote to support that narrative, the data simply doesn’t. And they call me a “science denier.”